PUBLICATIONS

- Li, X.*, Lan, Z., Ferrari, M., and Haran, M. (2022) Measles Burden Estimation Using Local Gaussian Process Classifiers ,
Submitted

- Roth, S.*, Lee, S., Sharma, S., Hosseini-Shakib, I., Keller, K., and Haran, M. (2022) , Flood hazard model calibration using multiresolution model output
Submitted

- Kelling, C.* and Haran, M. (2022) A Two-Stage Cox Process Model with Spatial and Non-spatial Covariates ,
Spatial Statistics, tentative accept

- Sharma, S., Lee, S., Hosseini-Shakib, I., Haran, M., and Keller, K. (2022) Neglecting uncertainties surrounding model parameters can drastically underestimate flood risks,
Submitted

- Li, X.*, Ferrari, M., Tildesley, M.J., and Haran, M. (2021) A space-time model for inferring a susceptibilty map for an infectious disease ,
Submitted

- Kang, B.*, Hughes, J.P., and Haran, M. (2021) Diagnostics for Monte Carlo Algorithms for Models with Intractable Normalizing Functions ,
submitted

- Nichols, J.D., Bogich, T.L., Howerton, E., Bjornstad, O.N., Borchering, R.K., Ferrari, M.J., Haran, M., Jewell, C., Pepin, K.M., Probert, W.J.M, Pulliam, J.R.C., Runge, M.C., Tildesley, M., Viboud, C., Shea, K. (2021) Strategic testing approaches for targeted disease monitoring can be used to inform pandemic decision-making,
PLOS Biology

- Lee, B.* and Haran, M. (2021+) PICAR: An Efficient Extendable Approach for Fitting Hierarchical Spatial Models ,
Technometrics (to appear).Github repository of sample code

- Lee, B.*, Haran, M., Fuller, R.W., Pollard, D., and Keller, K. (2020) A Fast Particle-Based Approach for Calibrating a 3-D Model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet,
Annals of Applied Statistics, 14, 2, 605-634.

- Park, J.*, and Haran, M. (2020) Reduced-dimensional Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood for Latent Gaussian Random Field Models,
Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 1-15

- Park, J.*, and Haran, M. (2020) A Function Emulation Approach for Intractable Distributions ,
Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics,29(1), 66-77.

- Kelling, C.*, Korkmaz, G., Graif, C., and Haran, M. (2020) ``Combining Geographic and Social Proximity to Model Urban Domestic and Sexual Violence,''
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 1-36.

- Paulson, J. et al. (2020) The Bacterial and Viral Complexity of Infant Postinfectious Hydrocephalus in Uganda
Science Translational Medicine, 12(563).

- Guan, Y.*, Christian Sampson, J. Derek Tucker, Won Chang, Anirban Mondal, Murali Haran, and Deborah Sulsky (2019) Computer model calibration based on image warping metrics: an application for sea ice deformation,
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, vol. 24(3), pages 444-463.

- Guan, Y.*, and Haran, M. (2019) Fast expectation-maximization algorithms for spatial generalized linear mixed models, submitted

- Chang, W.*, Konomi, B.A., Karagiannis, G., Guan, Y.*, and Haran, M. (2019) Ice Model Calibration using Semi-continuous Spatial Data, submitted to the
Annals of Applied Statistics

- Goldstein, J.*, Park, J.*, Haran, M., Bjornstad, Liebhold, A. (2018) Quantifying Spatio-temporal Variation of Invasion Spread,
Proceedings of the Royal Society (B), Volume 286, Issue 1894.

- R package for above paper: InvasionSpeed

- R. Olson, K. L. Ruckert, W. Chang, K. Keller, M. Haran, and S.-I. An (2018): Stilt: easy emulation of AR(1) computer model output in multidimensional parameter space. Stilt: Easy Emulation of Time Series Climate Model Output in Multidimensional Parameter Space ,
The R Journal, 10(2), 209-225.

- Reich, B.J., and Haran, M. (2018) Precision maps for public health ,
Nature News and Views. February 2018.

- Park, J.* and Haran, M. (2018) Bayesian Inference in the Presence of Intractable Normalizing Functions,
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 113, 523, 1372-1390.

- Guan, Y.* and Haran, M. (2018) A Computationally Efficient Projection-Based Approach for Spatial Generalized Linear Mixed Models,
Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 27(4), 701-714.

- Guan, Y.*, Haran, M., and Pollard, D. (2018) Inferring Ice Thickness from a Glacier Dynamics Model and Multiple Surface Datasets,
Environmetrics, 29.5-6

- Haran, M. (2018) Book Review of Efron and Hastie "Computer Age Statistical Inference" for
Math Geosciences

- Park, J.*, Goldstein, J.*, Haran, M., and Ferrari, M. (2017) An Ensemble Approach to Predicting the Impact of Vaccination on Rotavirus Disease in Niger ,
Vaccine, 35, 43, Pages 5731-5946

- Haran, M., Chang, W.*, Keller, K., Nicholas, R., and Pollard, D. (2017) Statistics and the Future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Chance, 30, 4, 37-44.

- Craigmile, P.F., Haran, M., Li, B., Mannshardt, E., Rajaratnam,B., Tingley, M. (2017) "Paleoclimate reconstruction: looking backwards to look forward,"
Handbook of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, Chapman and Hall/CRC, New York (edited volume).

- Russell, J.*, Hanks, E.M., Haran, M., and Hughes, D.P. (2017), A Spatially-Varying Stochastic Differential Equation Model for Animal Movement,
Annals of Applied Statistics,12(2), 1312-1331.

- Lee, B.*S., Haran, M., and Keller, K. (2017) Decadal-scale detection time for potentially increasing Atlantic storm surges in a warming climate, to appear in
Geophysical Research Letters,44, 20, pp 10,617-10,623

- Russell, J.*, Hanks, E.M., and Haran, M. (2016), Dynamic Models of Animal Movement with Spatial Point Process Interactions,
Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 21(1):22-40.

- Chang, W.*, Haran, M., Applegate, P., and Pollard, D. (2016) Calibrating an ice sheet model using high-dimensional binary spatial data ,
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 111, 513, 27-72

- Correction to paper: Figures 4 and 7

- Chang, W.*, Haran, M., Applegate, P. and Pollard, D. (2016) Improving Ice Sheet Model Calibration Using Paleoclimate and Modern Data,
Annals of Applied Statistics, 10, 4, 2274--2302.

- Pollard, D., Chang, W.*, Haran, M., Applegate, P., and DeConto, R. (2016) Large Ensemble modeling of last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques,
Geoscientific Model Development, 9 ,1697-1723.

- Tingley, M., Craigmile, P.F., Haran, M., Li, B., Mannshardt, E. and Rajaratnam, B. (2015), "On discriminating between GCM forcing configurations using Bayesian reconstructions of Late-Holocene temperatures",
Journal of Climate, 28,8264--8281.

- Goldstein, J.*, Haran, M., Simeonov, I., Fricks, J., and Chiaromonte, F. (2015) An attraction-repulsion point process model for respiratory syncytial virus infections
Biometrics, 71, 2, pp 376--385(Winnerof student paper competition at the Graybill/ENVR 2014 conference)

- Chang, W.*, Applegate, P., Haran, M. and Keller, K. (2014) Probabilistic calibration of a Greenland Ice Sheet model using spatially-resolved synthetic observations: toward projections of ice mass loss with uncertainties> ,
Geoscientific Model Development, 7 (2), 1933-1943, DOI:10.5194/gmd-7-1933-2014 (Geoscientific Model Development Discussion, 7, 1905-1931.)

- Chang, W.*, Haran, M., Olson, R., and Keller, K. (2014) Fast dimension-reduced climate model calibration and the effect of data aggregation,
Annals of Applied Statistics,8, 2, pp 649--673. (Winnerof the 2014 American Statistical Association Section on Statistics and the Environment Student Paper Competition)

- Chang, W.*, Haran, M., Olson, R., and Keller, K. (2014) A composite likelihood approach to computer model calibration with high-dimensional spatial data,
Statistica Sinica, 25 (2015), 243-259.

- Tibbits, M.M.*, Groendyke, C., Haran, M., and Liechty, J.C. (2014) Automated Factor Slice Sampling,
Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics23, 2, 543.

- Jandarov, R.*, Haran, M., Bjornstad, O.N. and Grenfell, B.T. (2014) Emulating a gravity model to infer the spatiotemporal dynamics of an infectious disease
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C, 63, 3, pp. 423-444.

- Haran, M., Nicholas, R., and Keller, K. (2013) The Role of Statistics in Sustainability Research, Invited essay contribution for Mathematics Awareness Month 2013.

- Katz, R.W., Craigmile, P.F., Guttorp, P., Haran, M., Sanso, B. and Stein, M.L. (2013) Uncertainty Analysis in Climate Change Assessments ,
Nature Climate Change, 3, 769-771.

- Olson, R., Sriver, R., Chang, W.*, Haran, M., Urban, N.M., Keller, K. (2013) Uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates due to random realizations of unresolved climate noise,
Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 118 (10), 4348-4358.

- Hughes, J.P.* and Haran, M. (2013), Dimension Reduction and Alleviation of Confounding for Spatial Generalized Linear Mixed Models ,
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 75, 1, 139--159.

- Bao, L., Fricks, J., and Haran, M. (2012) Discussion of Bayesian Spatio-Dynamic Modeling in Cell Motility Studies: Learning Nonlinear Taxic Fields Guiding Immune Response,
Journal of the American Statistical Association.

- Bhat, K.S.*, Haran, M., Olson, R., and Keller, K. (2012) Inferring likelihoods and climate system characteristics from climate models and multiple tracers ,
Environmetrics, 23, 24, 345--362.

A lecture I gave at Microsoft Research about this topic (2012)

- Olson, R., Sriver, R., Goes, M., Urban, N.M., Matthews, H.D., Haran, M., and Keller, K. (2012) A climate sensitivity estimate using Bayesian fusion of instrumental observations and an Earth System model,
Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 117, D4, 1984--2012.

- Tingley, M., Craigmile, P.F., Haran, M., Li, B., Mannshardt-Shamseldin, E. and Rajaratnam, B. (2012), Piecing together the past: Statistical insights into paleoclimatic reconstructions ,
Quaternary Science Reviews, 35, 1--22.

- Recta, V.*, Haran, M., and Rosenberger, J.L. (2012) A two-stage model for incidence and prevalence in point-level spatial count data ,
Environmetrics, 23, 2, 162--174.bibtex

- Jandarov, R.*, Haran, M., and Ferrari, M. (2012) A Compartmental Model for Meningitis: Separating Transmission from Climate Effects on Disease Incidence
Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 2012, 17, 3, 395--416.

- Haran, M. and Tierney, L. (2012) On automating Markov chain Monte Carlo for a class of spatial models

- Hughes, J.P.*, Haran, M., and Caragea, P.C. (2011), Autologistic models for binary data on a lattice ,
Environmetrics, 7, 857--871.

- Bhat, K.S.*, Haran, M., Terando, A.J. and Keller, K. (2011) Climate Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Space-Time Dependence.
Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 16, 4, pp. 606--628.

- Tibbits, M.M.*, Haran, M., and Liechty, J.C. (2011) Parallel multivariate slice sampling ,
Statistics and Computing 21, 3, 415--430.

- Haran, M. (2011) Gaussian random field models for spatial data,
Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo,Editors, Brooks, S.P., Gelman, A.E. Jones, G.L. and Meng, X.L., Chapman and Hall/CRC, pp 449--473. bibtex

- Haran, M. and Urban, N. (2010), Discussion of McShane and Wyner ``A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?
Annals of Applied Statistics.See all the discussions and the rejoinder here

- Bhat, K.S.*, Haran, M., and Goes, M. (2010) Computer model calibration with multivariate spatial output ,
in "Frontiers of Statistical Decision Making and Bayesian Analysis", eds. M-H. Chen et al., New York: Springer-Verlag, 2010, pp. 168--184.bibtex

- Goes, M., Urban, N., Olson, R., Haran, M., and Keller, K. (2010) The skill of different ocean tracers in reducing uncertainties about projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ,
Journal of Geophysical Research--Oceans, in pressbibtex

- Haran, M., Bhat, K.S.*, Molineros, J, and De Wolf, E. (2009) Estimating the risk of a crop epidemic from coincident spatiotemporal processes ,
Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 1085-7117.bibtex

- Yang, T., Teng, H., and Haran, M. (2009) The impacts of social capital on infant mortalities in the U.S.: a spatial investigation
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 2, 3, 211--227.

- Yang, T., Jensen, L., and Haran, M. (2009) Social Capital and Human Mortality: Explaining the Rural Paradox with County-Level Mortality Data, accepted for publication in
Rural Sociology.

- Flegal, J.M., Haran, M., and Jones, G.L. (2008) Markov chain Monte Carlo: Can we trust the third significant figure?
Statistical Science,23,250--260. bibtex

Code that implements the consistent batch means procedure for MCMC standard errors as described in the paper: R function and C function for consistent batch means

- Yang, T., Jensen, L., and Haran, M. (2008) Context and death: A spatial investigation of the impacts of social capital and natural amenities on mortality in the U.S. counties, refereed discussion paper,
Proceedings of the Population Association of America.

- Haran, M., Karr,A.F., Last,M., Orso,A. Porter,A., Sanil, A.P. and Fouche, S. (2007) Techniques for Classifying Executions of Deployed Software to Support Software Engineering Tasks,
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 33,5:287-304. bibtex

- Jones, G.L., Haran, M., Caffo, B.S. and Neath, R. (2006) Fixed Width Output Analysis for Markov chain Monte Carlo
, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101:1537--1547.bibtex

- Haran, M., Karr, A.F., Orso, A., Porter, A. and Sanil, A.P. (2005) Applying Classification Techniques to Remotely-Collected Program Execution Data in
ESEC/FSE-13: Proceedings of the 10th European software engineering conference held jointly with 13th ACM SIGSOFT international symposium on Foundations of software engineering.bibtex

- Haran, M. (2003) Efficient Perfect and MCMC Sampling Methods for Bayesian Spatial and Components of Variance Models, Unpublished Ph.D. thesis, University of Minnesota.

- Haran, M., Hodges, J.S., and Carlin, B.P., (2003) Accelerating computation in Markov random field models for spatial data via structured MCMC,,
Journal of Comp. and Graph. Statistics, 12, 249-264. bibtex

- Haran, M., Carlin, B.P., Adgate, J.L., Ramachandran, G., Waller, L.A., and Gelfand, A.E., Hierarchical Bayes models for relating particulate matter exposure measures,, Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics, Volume VI, eds. C.Gatsonis, et al., New York: Springer-Verlag, 2002. bibtex

Edited Volumes/Special Issues

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- Modern Statistical Methods in Ecology ,
Statistical Methodology Special Issue, Edited by Peter F. Craigmile and Murali Haran. Volume 17, Pages 1-160, March 2014.- Special Issue on Computer Models and Spatial Statistics in Environmental Science,
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, Edited by Brian J. Reich and Murali Haran. Volume 16, Issue 4, December 2011.