- How political preferences distort judgment
- De Veaux and Velleman (2009)
Math is Music, Statistics is Literature
The idea here: it takes a while, and experience, to develop the
skills/thinking necessary to be good at statistics. It is more common
to find mathematical prodigies. (As to the analogy between math and
music, that's a shade more iffy. At the very least, I think this
refers mostly to Western classical music. Hindustani music/jazz has
fewer prodigies -- musicians tend to reach their peaks relatively late
in life in these forms of music.)
- Daniel Bernoulli's work in the 1800s on maximizing expected utility
- Daniel Ellsberg: Ellsberg's paradox (1961) suggests that people are averse to ambiguity. No utility function is consistent wit h the choice that people make.
- What does randomness look like?
- People aren't great at judging risks. Example: Lichtenstein et al. (1978) Judged Frequency of Lethal Events
Hence, we should not rely on our "gut", better to use numbers!